Bonds, stocks may face disruption, historical chart suggests – – The U.S. bond and stock markets could potentially be facing extreme disruption, the long-term chart for 10-year yields suggests.
Bond prices have trended higher and yields lower over the past 37 years, with the historic chart of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peaking at around 16% in 1981 and bottoming below 2% in 2011 and again last year.
From a chart perspective, very unusually, yields have refused to move lower in a period of six years, while between 2011 and 2016 they set a double bottom.
This could suggest yields have set a secular bottom and will move higher from here.
Once yields move slightly higher from current levels, this could lead to a technical break out.
It is not clear what could happen once yields begin a fresh long-term uptrend.
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks suggests the latter could weaken on the longer term.
This does not mean a crash but rather a lack of strength.
The secular breakout level would be indicated by a move to 3% in 10-year yields.